Obama wins Wisconsin easily by 16-17 points. No word on Hawaii yet, but general consensus is that he’ll win that one, too.
March 4th really is going to be the big showdown. Hillary needs to win both of those states by getting 65% of the available delegates which just doesn’t seem all that realistic. If Obama wins either of them it would seem irrational for Clinton to remain in the race, as there would be very little chance of her catching Obama on pledged delegates. Her only hope would be super delegates and I think most everyone agrees that having the super delegates over turn the decision made by the voters would be fairly disastrous.
I hate to knock Hillary (although I’m more specifically knocking her campaign), but Texas has really bizarre delegate breakdowns based upon voter turnout in previous elections. This breakdown works in Obama’s favor. Hillary’s side was more than a bit frustrated about this when they discovered it earlier this month.
That means they pinned their hopes on a state where they weren’t even clear on the voting procedures.
That doesn’t exactly sound like “ready on day one” to me.
If Hillary loses, a lot of people are going to point to those behind the scenes, those who ran her campaign as being a big part of its failure. And I think those people would be right.